- 1 The Projected Marketplace Dimension & Alternative for Bioplastics
- 2 Plastic Waste & The Environmental Affect
- 3 No longer One, No longer Two, However 3 Income Resources
- 4 Vital Variations Between Corn-Primarily based & Cellulosic Ethanol
- 5 Main Demanding situations That Blue Biofuels Has Triumph over
- 6 Feedstock Prices Resolve Margins & Profitability
- 7 The U.S. Govt Throws Its Weight At the back of Choice Power
- 8 Abstract & Conclusion
- 9 Related Article:
The Projected Marketplace Dimension & Alternative for Bioplastics
Again on Sept. 11, 2021, we wrote an editorial for our Google weblog which spoke about how we felt that Blue Biofuels (OTCQB:BIOF) traders neglected one thing crucial, that we believed to be of serious importance.
Our bullish viewpoint in this corporate emanates no longer simplest from the alternatives that lie forward for BIOF within the box of biofuels, but additionally within the thrilling space of bioplastics.
The worldwide Bioplastics marketplace is predicted to check in an important CAGR 26.03% right through the forecast length 2022-2028. In keeping with Marketplace expansion stories newest analysis Bioplastics Trade Expertise optimization phases are answers which ship a company the power to grasp the requirement of each and every particular person buyer and advice the most efficient conceivable enjoy for them throughout all contact issues.
The worldwide Bioplastics marketplace was once estimated at 3,123.24 kilo heaps in 2022, and is predicted to check in an estimated CAGR of 26.03%, right through the forecast length (2022 – 2028). Probably the most main drivers for the expanding call for on this marketplace is the expanding environmental issues, globally, and governments of the advanced and growing countries encouraging atmosphere pleasant merchandise.
Supply: Marketplace Watch
That weblog article serious about two crucial tendencies that had been going down at Blue Biofuels, Inc., that have been due to this fact communicated to shareholders, by means of the corporate, via two separate press releases:
One filed patent relates to the manufacturing of lignin from the CTS procedure; the second one filed patent relates to the manufacturing of nanocellulose from the CTS procedure.
Those are main tendencies as a result of our no-sulfur lignin can be utilized for the manufacturing of bio-originated and biodegradable plastics in addition to in ion-exchange resins. Additional, the Corporate believes each lignin and nano-cellulose have the possibility of turning into very excessive cost co-products of our procedure. The Corporate is operating on isolating and purifying those merchandise for long term sale. The worldwide nanocellulose marketplace is predicted to exceed $1 billion by means of 2027, consistent with reportlinker.com.
Supply: Blue Biofuels CEO Ben Slager
This about sums up the reaction from traders.
Whilst we sounded a serious warning call, many traders selected to forget about it and as a substitute selected to hit the snooze button.
Plastic Waste & The Environmental Affect
Our preliminary dialogue of the bioplastics alternative seemed in our Looking for Alpha article: Blue Biofuels: Our Absolute Perfect And Quantity One Micro-cap Thought For 2021.
In that article, we laid out the chance in bioplastics, for the corporate, within the segment titled Biofuels & Bioplastics – Marketplace Dimension And Alternatives.
We extremely suggest traders take any other take a look at that article. It supplies a very good assessment of Blue Biofuels and why we predict that this corporate may well be some of the greatest micro-cap sleepers in nowadays’s marketplace.
A few of you will have noticed the tv advertisement for the KIA Sportage, named The Beachcomber, which includes a younger guy using alongside a abandoned seaside amassing plastic bottles and different plastic waste that experience washed ashore in order that sea turtles can nest and start laying their eggs.
There are blended emotions about this advertisement, with all sides debating on YouTube, the place the advertisement has been seen over 17.2 million instances.
It doesn’t matter what facet of the problem you fall on, there is not any doubt that the affect of plastic pollution to the surroundings is actual.
There are billions of non-biodegradable plastic water bottles which have been used and discarded by means of other folks, over time. The issue is that a lot of them finally end up in landfills and waterways the place they devise an ugly and unpleasant environmental eye sore. Many of those plastics are recycled for use once more to make new packing containers and different plastic pieces.
With the appearance of latest applied sciences, there at the moment are plastics being produced which might be biodegradable, that means that through the years they are going to merely breakdown and grow to be an harmless a part of the surroundings.
How lengthy it takes to biodegrade will depend on the fabrics used to supply the plastic. The graphic beneath displays the timetable for degradation of more than a few forms of plastics.
Vital development has been made in growing biodegradable plastics, basically from renewable herbal assets, to supply biodegradable fabrics with an identical capability to oil-based polymers. Legislation  estimated that 8.3 billion heaps of plastic were produced international from the Fifties to 2015. Alternatively, simplest 21% of this quantity has been recycled or incinerated, whilst the remainder (79% or) is amassed in landfills or atmosphere. Maximum conventionally used plastics aren’t biodegradable; thus, it stays within the atmosphere for years. Despite the fact that plastic fabrics bodily wreck or tire into smaller debris in landfills or marine environments, they input into meals chains or animal our bodies, inflicting more than a few sicknesses [, , ]. With acceleration within the manufacturing, intake, and disposal of plastic-based fabrics international, the long run for our planet seems bleak. This phenomenon puts an amazing burden on Earth on account of the buildup of non-renewable herbal resource-based plastics within the biosphere, impacting people, flora and fauna, and their herbal environments [7,8].
The cleaner era way the usage of biodegradable assets has been aggressively inspired to keep an eye on international air pollution . Therefore, a lot of analysis has been performed to broaden herbal choices, with more secure, cleaner, and biodegradable, renewable assets as precursor subject matter as a substitute of petroleum [10,11]. Cleaner manufacturing applied sciences the usage of protected, sustainable and herbal assets lend a hand scale back the hostile affect in the world, water and air by means of processes and merchandise of typical production industries. Herbal choices reminiscent of starch, cellulose, vegetation proteins, polylactic acid (PLA), polyhydroxy butyrate (PHB), and bio-based polyamide all possess distinctive benefits which might be used in other programs [12,13]. Biopolymer founded fabrics were widely evaluated and utilized in many programs [14,15]. Nonetheless, their commercialization has been limited because of the deficient homes, but they want to be progressed to achieve or exceed the petroleum-based ones. The deficient mechanical power and water barrier homes, for instance, have at all times been a problem related to bioplastics and herbal packaging fabrics [16,17]. Alternatively, using reinforcement subject matter/s has been proposed to triumph over this problem. Other natural fillers, which might be hydrophobic or hydrophilic reinforcement fabrics, were used to beef up the homes of biopolymers for business programs [, , ]. Lignocellulosic biomass is the main supply for natural fillers, principally cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin .
Lignin is the second one maximum ample bioorganic polymer on earth after cellulose . Lignin isn’t naturally to be had in its remoted shape, however it’s bodily mixed with cellulose and hemicellulose. Recently, lignin is being widely used as a reinforcement subject matter for biopolymer composite manufacturing . It’s an abundantly to be had, sustainable, and reasonably priced polymeric subject matter that complements polymer composites’ power. Lignin polymer is a spinoff to be had in relatively huge quantities, that means that the valorisation of lignin in composite fabrics for any high-value software may lead to huge financial beneficial properties. It’s been utilized in more than a few sectors as a chief part or additive for the manufacturing of latest cutting edge bioplastics merchandise for various programs . The valorisation of lignin as a reinforcement subject matter in biopolymers is a relatively new and rising analysis box. Intensive levels of polymers bolstered with lignin were labeled and investigated. As displayed in Fig. 1, the collection of research on lignin will increase with a emerging collection of clinical articles printed on lignin-based polymers. The expanding collection of researches is motivated by means of the need to triumph over all of the obstacles and demanding situations related to biopolymers composites. This has resulted within the manufacturing of biopolymers bolstered with more than a few forms of lignin for novel biocomposite programs.
The call for for sustainable purposeful fabrics with an eco-friendly preparation procedure is on the upward thrust. Lignocellulosics has been attributed as probably the most sustainable bioresource on earth which is able to meet the stringent necessities of functionalization. Alternatively, cellulose nanomaterials bought from lignocellulosics which has reached complex phases as a sustainable purposeful subject matter is challenged by means of its preparation procedures. Those procedures cannot perfect be described as sustainable and eco-friendly proudly owning to loads of power and chemical compounds spent within the pre-treatment and purification processes. Those processes are supposed to help fractionation into the most important elements so as to take away lignin and hemicellulose for the manufacturing of cellulose nanomaterials. This paintings is thus focused on reviewing the development completed in introducing a brand new cellulose nanomaterial containing lignin. The preparation processes, homes and programs of this new lignin-containing cellulose nanomaterial will probably be mentioned so as to chart a sustainable preparation course for cellulose nanomaterials.
During the last a long time, cellulose nanomaterials were established as supply subject matter for more than a few programs (Salas et al., 2014; Peng et al., 2016; Sabo et al., 2016; Stark, 2016; Mondal, 2017; Wang et al., 2018). The level of its software is just too a lot of that more than a few new probabilities are continuously being found out by means of scientists. That is occasioned by means of its ample hydroxyl teams which might be readily to be had for floor adjustments. Moreover, the continual call for for sustainable purposeful fabrics and the expanding environmental demanding situations posed by means of petroleum founded merchandise additionally give a contribution to the repeatedly expanding analysis on cellulose nanomaterials. They’re mainly labeled as cellulose nanofibers (CNFs) and cellulose nanocrystals (CNCs) and are predominately sourced from plant fibres (each wooden and non-wood elements) via more than a few chemical and mechanical processes.
Alternatively, the manufacturing of those nanomaterials is being challenged by means of a number of elements which proceed proscribing its fast industrialization to its complete potentials. Those demanding situations involving value of power and chemical compounds and environmental issues of those chemical compounds for the pre-treatment procedure are recently being investigated by means of researchers. Those issues have given upward push to a brand new class of nanocellulose fabrics which might be the lignin-containing cellulose nanofibers (LCNFs) and nanocrystals (LCNCs).
In contrast to lignin comprised of different trade competition, which use different strategies of extraction, Blue Biofuel’s sulfur-free lignin stays natural and unmodified, since there are not any caustic chemical compounds, pricey enzymes or excessive temperatures used within the CTS 2.0 procedure.
This turns into a stupendous merit to doable long term consumers who acquire this virgin lignin to make use of within the meals and beverage comparable pieces that they produce.
The merit for Blue Biofuels, Inc, is this lignin spinoff turns into any other main income for the corporate.
No longer One, No longer Two, However 3 Income Resources
Blue Biofuel’s revenues aren’t simply from promoting sugars to supply ethanol.
Our bullish thesis on BIOF relies on the truth that this corporate is within the distinctive place of getting a patented era that may produce no longer one, no longer two, however 3 extremely prized assets of income.
The ones 3 assets of income are the sale of cellulosic sugars to supply jet gasoline and different main biofuels, the sale of lignin and nanocellulose to supply environmentally pleasant bioplastics, and the all-important FDA RIN credit that experience necessarily no value, leading to 100% benefit margins.
Take into accounts that for a minute.
Ethanol manufacturers generate 3 number one assets of income. The primary comes from the margins at the sale of sugars which might be extracted from the processing of the feedstock. Every other comes from the D6 RIN credit for corn ethanol, not too long ago pegged at kind of $1.13 in keeping with gallon. This compares to a RIN value of roughly $3.23 a gallon for D3, the EPA class for corn ethanol.
The general income supply for corn-based ethanol manufacturers comes from the sale of DDGS (Distiller Dried Grains with Soluables). They’re a spinoff of the method of changing corn into sugars for use in ethanol manufacturing.
Those grains are basically use as fodder for cattle (particularly ruminants). Corn-based distillers grains from the ethanol trade are recurrently offered as a excessive protein cattle feed that will increase potency and lowers the chance of subacute acidosis in pork farm animals.
It is not quite common to peer a trade that derives its revenues from 3 assets, however within the ethanol trade it is usual follow.
Vital Variations Between Corn-Primarily based & Cellulosic Ethanol
The largest variations between manufacturers of corn-based ethanol and cellulosic biomass ethanol are three-fold.
1. The price of generating a gallon of ethanol, which is basically made up our minds in which feedstocks are used within the sugar extraction procedure.
2. The price of the EPA (Environmental Coverage Company) RIN credit. On this case a D3 credit score for cellulosic ethanol and a D6 credit score for corn-based ethanol.
3. The sale of by-products which might be end result from the producing procedure.
Believe, for a minute, that you simply had a trade promoting widgets. There’s a value on your corporate to construct the ones widgets, and a value at which you promote them in your consumers. The variation represents your gross benefit margin.
You will have prices related to making every widget, which come with such things as the price of shopping the uncooked fabrics used.
Now, what if the USA Govt advised you, that should you had been to construct your widgets out of a selected subject matter (let’s name it “Subject matter A”), they might pay you a financial incentive of $1.13 for every widget that your corporate manufactures.
This $1.13 would complement your income by means of $1.13 in keeping with widget. Since there are not any prices in your corporate by any means, all the $1.13 that you’d obtain from the U.S. Govt is yours to stay.
Let’s consider, that you simply promote your widgets to consumers at a value of $3.00 every. You will have prices, all-in, to supply the ones widgets of $1.50, thus giving you a benefit margin of 100% on every widget that you’ll promote.
Alternatively, there could also be the extra quantity that you simply obtain from the federal government; on this case $1.13.
Since there are not any prices incurred, for your section, to acquire this extra quantity, you’ll upload it to the $1.50 benefit that you’ve created from the sale of every widget.
Taking the $3.00 sale value of every widget and including the $1.13 credit score from the federal government supplies a complete of $4.13 in income, as opposed to the prior $3.00.
Subtracting the associated fee to supply every widget of $1.50, provides you with a web benefit of $2.63 in keeping with widget. In different phrases your web margins have simply long past from 100% to 175%, by means of distinctive feature of the U.S. Govt credit score.
Whilst that indisputably sounds excellent, the following situation sounds even higher.
The U.S. Govt provides you with a good larger credit score, of $3.23 in keeping with widget, should you use a distinct subject matter (we will name this one Subject matter “B”) to fabricate your widgets.
On this situation, your web benefit margin would quantity to 315% as a substitute of 175%.
It’s calculated this manner: If we take $3.00, the sale value of a widget and upload to that the $3.23 gained from the federal government we come to a complete of $6.23 in revenues. Then taking the $6.23 in general revenues, and subtracting the $1.50 web value to supply a widget, offers us a web benefit of $4.73 for every widget.
We then divide the $4.73 in web benefit, by means of the $1.50 value of every widget to get a hold of a benefit margin of 315%.
Now, we get to the $64,000 query:
Why would you employ Subject matter “A” to supply your widgets, at a benefit margin of 175%, as a substitute of the usage of Subject matter “B”, thereby expanding your total benefit margins from 175% to 315%. The solution is discreet:
As a result of, up till now, nobody has discovered an economically viable method to “crack the code”, so as to discuss, because it relates to the calcitrant homes of cellulose.
Main Demanding situations That Blue Biofuels Has Triumph over
The main demanding situations, previously, related to the usage of cellulosic biomass to create sugars for fermentation into ethanol are well known. In maximum earlier cellulosic conversion applied sciences, using caustic chemical compounds or pricey enzymes had been required.
This provides considerably, no longer simplest to the price of the method, but additionally to the period of time for conversion to the general product; sugars.
Blue Biofuel’s patented CTS 2.0 conversion procedure calls for no pricey chemical compounds or enzymes for pre-treatment of the cellulosic biomass ahead of processing, to supply sugars for ethanol. Because of the potency of the CTS 2.0 procedure, it additionally takes little or no time to finish to technique of conversion and leads to a 99% conversion fee of the biomass subject matter, that means that there’s little or no residual waste.
The use of their patented, mechanical-chemical extraction way, referred to as CTS (Cellulose-to-Sugar) 2.0, Blue Biofuels has created a cheap and environment friendly way of manufacturing sugars from cellulosic biomass.
Blue Biofuels [has] advanced a brand new and progressed era device that converts just about any plant subject matter — grasses, wooden, paper, farm waste, backyard waste, forestry merchandise, fruit casings, nut shells, and the cellulosic portion of municipal cast waste — into sugars and due to this fact into biofuels with out using enzymes or liquid acids. We name this the CTS procedure, the place CTS stands for Cellulose to Sugar. The cellulose is switched over into sugar and lignin. The sugar is additional switched over into bio-ethanol and different biofuels.
Blue Biofuels CTS procedure is a mechanical-chemical procedure that, in contrast to different cellulosic conversion processes, does no longer use any pricey and sluggish changing enzymes within the conversion of cellulose into its elements of sugar and lignin. We use an excessively reasonably priced catalyst this is recycled.
CTS procedure is environmentally pleasant: 100% renewable, 100% recycled water, no poisonous chemical compounds, and a virtually 0 carbon footprint.
Blue Biofuels expects so that you could produce cellulosic ethanol the usage of CTS procedure at a considerably lower price than some other cellulosic procedure or even at a lower price than ethanol from corn because of the truth that our feedstock (both tall grasses or waste product) is way more cost effective than corn.
Supply: Blue Biofuels
Feedstock Prices Resolve Margins & Profitability
This remaining paragraph brings up any other crucial level, which is a significant merit over conventional corn-based ethanol. Blue Biofuel’s patented CTS 2.0 era makes use of an excessively ample and reasonably priced feedstock, which will also be harvested more than one instances right through the calendar 12 months.
Let’s use an instance as an example.
What if the price of Subject matter “A” (cellulosic biomass) was once roughly 1/sixth the price of Subject matter “B” (box corn)?
Now, as a substitute of your uncooked subject matter (feedstock) prices being $1.50, they might be roughly $0.25 cents.
This dramatically adjustments the benefit margin numbers above to mirror the lower price of cellulosic feedstocks as opposed to conventional corn-based feedstock.
Subject matter “A” (Box Corn) produces a web benefit margin of 175%
Subject matter “B” (Cellulosic Biomass) produces a web benefit margin of 315%
Adjusting for the variation in cellulosic feedstock prices to constitute 1/sixth the price of the usage of corn as a feedstock, leads to web benefit margins of just about 2,400%.
The 1/sixth differential is not only a random quantity.
Recently, the price of one ton of corn is roughly $275.00, whilst the price of a ton of king grass is between $35 and $55 a ton. The use of the imply value of $45 in keeping with ton, king grass is kind of 1/sixth the price of box corn.
A bushel of corn weighs kind of 56 kilos. There are 39.4 bushels of corn in keeping with ton which produces roughly 2.85 gallons of ethanol in keeping with corn bushel, or between 90 and 112.29 gallons of ethanol in keeping with corn ton.
Evaluate that to using cellulosic biomass as a feedstock for generating ethanol, which is estimated to be between 172.5 and 206 gallons in keeping with ton.
As anticipated, will increase within the conversion yield beef up value metrics,” the Sandia/GM learn about states. “As some extent of reference, corn grain ethanol yields reasonable roughly 90 gallons/ton. The theoretical biochemical yield from cellulose and hemicellulose is 172.5 gallons/dry ton, whilst the utmost yield from the thermochemical procedure is 206 gallons/dry ton. Alternatively, the sensible most yields for conversion processes the usage of cellulose are estimated to be 120 gallons/dry ton, because of losses from non-converted feedstock subject matter and exterior power inputs. There are not any knowledge on production-scale cellulosic processes, as there are not any such processes in life, however the present estimates in keeping with laboratory yields are within the vary of 63-72 gallons/dry ton (Hsu, 2008). Our reference case has an total reasonable yield (2006-2030) of 95 gallons/dry ton and thus assumes important technical advances through the years. Sensitivity research confirmed that the associated fee distinction between reaching a average development of yield (75 gallons/dry ton) and reaching the utmost sensible yield corresponds to roughly a $0.20/gallon affect on value of ethanol.
Supply: Ethanol Lately
The U.S. Govt Throws Its Weight At the back of Choice Power
Supply: Space Press Gallery
Simply this previous week, we noticed the passage of H.R. 7356, often referred to as the Inflation Relief Act. This was once milestone regulation for the “Inexperienced Power”, or selection power trade. Integrated within the invoice is monetary help for corporations which might be generating the following era of other power applied sciences, which will probably be used to slowly de-carbonize the ambience and the surroundings.
Integrated within the Inflation Relief Act are a number of key priorities for the biofuels trade:
- 45Q tax credit for carbon oxide sequestration and usage prolonged via 2032 with adjusted charges of $85/ton for sequestration and $60/ton for usage.
- Blank Gasoline Manufacturing Credit score beginning in 2025 and expiring on the finish of 2027 for the manufacturing of low-carbon fuels.
- 5 Years of Sustainable Aviation Gasoline (SAF) credit: A stand-alone credit score for SAF then as a part of the Blank Gasoline Manufacturing Credit score for 3 years.
- $500 million for biofuels infrastructure in the course of the finish of 2031.
- Extension of Biomass-Primarily based Diesel Blenders Credit score and the 2d-Technology Biofuels Manufacturer Credit score for 2 years.
- $300 million grant program to extend home manufacturing and deployment of SAF and low-emission aviation applied sciences.
Supply: Enlargement Power
This regulation is a game-changer for corporations which might be serious about generating ethanol and SAF (Sustainable Aviation Gasoline).
We printed an editorial on Looking for Alpha, again on Might 12, 2022, which indicated that Blue Biofuels was once inching nearer to the commercialization of its innovative CTS 2.0 era.
The present inflationary atmosphere and its affect on commodity costs will most probably fortify the worth of the usage of cellulosic biomass as a substitute feedstock to corn.
Abstract & Conclusion
We consider that Blue Biofuels is in a candy spot and an enviable place on the subject of generating biofuels and Sustainable Aviation Gasoline. Our funding thesis for BIOF relies on a number of main elements which might be at play, together with:
1. A low cost way of extracting sugars from cellulosic biomass, that gets rid of the pricy enzymes and chemical compounds prior to now utilized in different strategies of sugar extraction.
2. A conversion fee of 99%, with very little residual waste.
3. An EPA D6 RIN credit score this is considerably upper than the D3 RIN credit score for corn-based ethanol.
4. A cellulosic feedstock this is kind of 1/sixth the price of conventional box corn, generating a lot upper margins and doubtlessly larger income.
5. A window of access into the fast-growing bioplastics trade, by means of distinctive feature of getting a stupendous lignin spinoff which is purer than different assets of lignin. This purity effects from getting rid of using enzymes and chemical compounds within the CTS 2.0 procedure.
6. A possible shift clear of conventional corn-based ethanol, because of the inflationary affect on commodity costs, together with wheat, soybeans, and corn.
7. The corporate is operating in collaboration with the USDA to fortify the prospective yields from vegetation that will probably be used as biomass feedstock.
8. The truth that Blue Biofuels has produced a sequence of 4 prototypes, every with considerably upper output numbers than predecessor devices, displays that they have got been a success at optimizing every new era of the CTS 2.0 reactor.
9. The corporate has employed an engineering company to help with the improvement and next manufacturing of a commercial-scale reactor, which must be nearing finishing touch by means of past due 2022 or early 2023.
10. The new passage of H.R. 5376, which must transparent the way in which for grants, and different varieties of monetary help to help within the construction of latest selection power applied sciences.
We must additionally word that on Might second of this 12 months, the CEO, Ben Slager and CFO, Anthony Santelli every put $75,000 in a Personal Placement, which the corporate was once accomplishing to boost a small quantity of operating capital to proceed with the optimization of the prevailing prototype. We interpret that as a display of self belief within the development of the prototype construction and the effects that had been completed.
Take note, that Blue Biofuels is a developmental level corporate and can most probably want to lift further capital against the finalization of the industrial scale unit.
If you’re a micro-cap investor, you might need to believe including BIOF to the speculative portion of your fairness portfolio. We consider that the corporate is very neatly located in two long term mega-trends, biofuels and bioplastics.
If Blue Biofuels can succeed in the extent of luck of their strategic marketing strategy, to meaningfully take part in those two industries, the inventory may see important appreciation within the coming years.
Alternatively, along with important rewards, there also are important dangers.
We ask that you simply please learn the disclosures and disclaimers, that seem on the finish of every of our articles, for a greater working out of the original dangers of micro-cap making an investment.
Micro-cap shares elevate further dangers past the ones of upper categories of securities together with, however no longer restricted to buying and selling out of doors of a indexed replace, doable liquidity problems, coping with penny-stock regulations, loss of margin eligibility, a conceivable absence of transparency referring to BBBO quotes, a restricted collection of Marketplace Makers prepared to supply intensity to the order ebook, doable problems referring to financing actions, insufficient capital to execute at the corporate’s marketing strategy, going worry caveats, and the prospective incapability to compete with better firms because of restricted monetary and staff assets. Please make investments responsibly. We inspire people to just make investments what they may be able to have the funds for to lose, as much as a most of 100% in their funding.
We extremely suggest that you simply carry out your personal due diligence ahead of making an investment in any fairness safety and seek advice from your personal monetary consultant ahead of you decide.